Brazil is a top exporter of every commodity that has seen dizzying price surges – iron ore, soybeans, sugar – producing a golden age for economic growth Foreign money-flows into Brazilian stocks and bonds climbed heavenward, up more than tenfold, from $5 billion a year in early 2007 to more than $50 billion in the twelve months through March 2011.
The flood of foreign money buying up Brazilian assets has made the currency one of the most expensive in the world, and Brazil one of the most costly, overhyped economies. Almost every major emerging market currency has strengthened against the dollar over the last decade, but the Brazilian Real is on a path alone, way above the pack, having doubled in value against the dollar.
Economists have all kinds of fancy ways to measure the real value of a currency, but when a country is pricing itself this far out of the competition, you can feel it on the ground. In early 2011 the major Rio paper, 0 Globo, ran a story on prices showing that croissants are more expensive than they are in Paris, haircuts cost more than they do in London, bike rentals are more expensive than in Amsterdam, and movie tickets sell for higher prices than in Madrid. A rule of the road: if the local prices in an emerging market country feel expensive even to a visitor from a rich nation, that country is probably not a breakout nation.
There is no better example of how absurd it is to lump all the big emerging markets together than the frequent pairing of Brazil and China. Those who make this comparison are referring only to the fact that they are the biggest players in their home regions, not to the way the economies actually run. Brazil is the world‘s leading exporter of many raw materials, and China is the leading importer; that makes them major trade partners – China surpassed the United States as Brazil’s leading trade partner in 2009 f but it also makes them opposites in almost every important economic respect: Brazil is the un-China, with interest rates that are too high, and a currency that is too expensive. It spends too little on roads and too much on welfare, and as a result has a very un-China-like growth record.
It may not be entirely fair to compare economic growth in Brazil with that of its Asian counterparts, because Brazil has a per capita income of $12,000, more than two times China’s and nearly ten times India’s. But even taking into account the fact that it is harder for rich nations to grow quickly, Brazil’s growth has been disappointing. Since the early 19805 the Brazilian growth rate has oscillated around an average of 2.5 percent, spiking only in concert with increased prices for Brazil’s key commodity exports. While China has been criticized for pursuing “growth at any cost,” Brazil has sought to secure “stability at any cost.” Brazil’s caution stems from its history of financial crises, in which overspending produced debt, humiliating defaults, and embarrassing devaluations, culminating in a disaster that is still recent enough to be fresh in every Brazilian adult’s memory: the hyperinflation that started in the early 19805 and peaked in 1994, at the vertiginous annual rate of 2,100 percent.
Wages were pegged to inflation but were increased at varying intervals in different industries, 50 workers never really knew whether they were making good money or not. As soon as they were paid, they literally ran to the store with cash to buy food, and they could afford little else, causing non-essential industries to start to die. Hyperinflation finally came under control in l995, but it left a problem of regular behind. Brazil has battled inflation ever since by maintaining one of the highest interest rates in the emerging world.
Those high rates have attracted a surge of foreign money, which is partly why the Brazilian Real is so expensive relative to comparable currencies. There is a growing recognition that China faces serious “imbalances” that could derail its long economic boom. Obsessed until recently with high growth, China has been pushing too hard to keep its currency too cheap (to help its export industries compete), encouraging excessively high savings and keeping interest rates rock bottom to fund heavy spending on roads and ports. China is only now beginning to consider a shift in spending priorities to create social programs that protect its people from the vicissitudes of old age and unemployment.
Brazil’s economy is just as badly out of balance, though in opposite ways. While China has introduced reforms relentlessly for three decades, opening itself up to the world even at the risk of domestic instability, Brazil has pushed reforms only in the most dire circumstances, for example, privatizing state companies when the government budget is near collapse. Fearful of foreign shocks, Brazil is still one of the most closed economies in the emerging world – total imports and exports account for only 15 percent of GDP – despite its status as the world’s leading exporter of sugar, orange juice, coffee, poultry, and beef.
To pay for its big government, Brazil has jacked up taxes and now has a tax burden that equals 38 percent of GDP, the highest in the emerging world, and very similar to the tax burden in developed European welfare states, such as Norway and France. This heavy load of personal and corporate tax on a relatively poor country means that businesses don’t have the money to invest in new technology or training, which in turn means that industry is not getting more efficient. Between 1986 and 2008 Brazil’s productivity grew at an annual rate of :about 0.2 percent, compared to 4 percent in China. Over the same period, productivity grew in India at close to 3 percent and in South Korea and Thailand at close to 2 percent.
1. According to the passage, the major concern facing the Brazil economy is:
(a) Despite being a major exporter of several key primary commodities, the openness of the economy has not improved.
(b) High tax incidence on the household and company incomes, which restricts the ability of the firms to facilitate innovation and skill formation.
(c) Insufficient spending of budgetary resources on infrastructure augmentation, which hurts economic interests.
(d) All of the above
Ans: ()
2. Brazil’s quest for stability in its economy has originated From:
(a) The bitter experience of financial crisis and hyperinflation in the nineties
(b) The need to maintain steady supply of commodity exports from its economy
(c) The urge to enhance economic growth further
(d) All of the above
Ans: ()
3. Identify the false statement:
(a) The Brazilian government in the past has shown lesser inclination towards quick implementation of reform measures,
(b) The inflow of foreign currency in Brazil has increased by around US $ 45 Billion over the four-year period starting from 2007
(c) The annual productivity growth rate in China during 1980-2008 is found to be 20 times higher than the corresponding figure experienced by Brazil.
(d) The current inflation management practice of Brazil has proved its economy a significant edge vis-à-vis other countries.
Ans: ()
4. According to the passage, Brazil does not seem to be an exporter of which commodity combination?
(a) Poultry and beef
(b) Iron ore and soybeans
(c) Croissants and bikes
(d) Sugar, orange juice and coffee
Ans: ()
(Source: IIFT-2013)
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